Terror threat rising in UK as attackers become ‘increasingly unpredictable’ and harder to detect

The terrorist threat to Britain is rising as attackers become “increasingly unpredictable” and harder to detect, the home secretary has said.

Unveiling the government’s new counter-terrorism strategy, Suella Braverman said threats had become “more diverse, dynamic and complex”.

“We judge that the risk from terrorism is rising, albeit from a lower base and not as high as a few years ago,” she told an event in Westminster.

“Terrorist attacks are becoming increasingly unpredictable, and harder to detect and investigate. Unlike in previous years, terrorist movements are increasingly fragmented and dispersed.”

Ms Braverman said the types of threats were “more diverse, dynamic and complex”, adding: “The terrorist threat is evolving and increasing, so we must also evolve to get ahead of it.”

The home secretary said 39 plots had been foiled since 2017 - a period that has seen 15 attacks carried out - praising the work of the security services.

Home Office officials said they were working to address any potential threat from a record number of terror offenders being released from prison this year, through enhanced intelligence-sharing and monitoring.

The head of UK counter terror policing, assistant commissioner Matt Jukes, previously said he was expecting one release a week and that those being freed included people “convicted of very serious offences” and plots in the 2000s.

The government’s report said it had become more challenging to disrupt terrorist groups and potential attackers because of a shift away from organisations like Isis and al-Qaeda to lone actors and informal networks who operate mainly online.

At the same time, the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan and spread of Isis affiliates in parts of Africa has created a “permissive operating environment” for groups who may aspire to attack the UK again in future.

The government’s new counter-terrorism strategy, Contest 2023, also warned that conspiracy theories that exploded during the Covid pandemic “can act as gateways to radicalised thinking and sometimes violence”.

It also said the drivers of terrorism were broadening beyond “traditional narratives” to a mix of ideologies, personal grievances and mental health issues that made it increasingly difficult to judge a person’s motivation.

Officials said that while incels could become a terror threat, only a small proportion are believed to be drawn to violence and attacks like the 2021 Plymouth shooting may not meet the legal definition of terrorism in the UK.

The report said jihadists still posed the largest threat to the UK, accounting for two thirds of attacks since 2018 and the terrorist offenders in prison, and three quarters of MI5’s caseload.

The remainder of the UK domestic threat is “almost exclusively” from the far right, who were responsible for around a fifth of attacks in the past five years, 28 per cent of terrorist prisoners and a quarter of MI5’s caseload.

The new Contest strategy aims to tackle the domestic terrorist risk, as well as the threat from jihadist groups overseas and the exploitation of technology to encourage, resource, instruct and glorify attacks.

“It is essential that we continue to understand the rapidly evolving technological landscape and maintain the agility required to reduce the terrorism risk as the world changes,” it said.

“Artificial Intelligence (AI) has implications for both our approach to counter-terrorism and the threats we face, with the potential for terrorist activity to become more sophisticated with less effort.

“While it could radically speed up the process of threat detection, terrorists are likely to exploit the technology to create and amplify radicalising content, propaganda and instructional materials, and to plan and commit attacks.”

The government said it was better connecting the counter-terrorism system with expertise in healthcare, education, social services and the criminal justice system, aiming to divert people away from extremism.

It has also vowed to act on the findings of a review of the Prevent counter-terrorism programme and the Manchester Arena inquiry, and implement a law mandating minimum protections for venues.

But Labour’s shadow security minister Holly Lynch said the strategy was “too narrow and leaves alarming strategic gaps”.

“There is no serious plan to deal with online radicalisation or hateful extremism,” she added. “The government should explain how it plans to plug these gaps.”